CAMPAIGN finance reporting requirements are meant to educate the public about who is funding the campaigns and where the money is going. They are a public interest measure to hold the candidates accountable. You wouldn’t know that if you were trying to answer a simple question: Who pays Joyce Craig’s campaign manager?
Craig is the former Mayor of Manchester who is seeking the Democratic nomination for Governor. Several news reports show a Craig Brown serving as her campaign manager and spokesman. I was unsuccessful in finding Brown in Craig’s finance reports.
But wait a minute. It appears the Craig campaign pays the New Hampshire Democratic Party to process payroll expenses for her campaign. Every month throughout the fall, for example, the Craig campaign paid the NHDP anywhere from $9,000 to $19,000 for “Administrative – Salary and Wages.” Seems a bit sus, as the kids say, but it’s perfectly legal.
We’d certainly see Craig Brown’s compensation reported in the NHDP filings, right? Not so fast. I couldn’t find him anywhere. Other Craig campaign staffers appear in the NHDP reports, like finance director Katelyn Rademacher. But no Craig Brown.
I contacted the Craig campaign seeking clarification and received only an auto generated response telling me, “We will try to respond to your message in a timely manner.” Not timely enough.
The mystery remains unsolved: Who is paying Joyce Craig’s campaign manager?
Battleground New Hampshire
Elsewhere, it appears as though New Hampshire could once again emerge as the center of the political universe this year. The current 270toWin.com consensus electoral map shows the likely Democratic nominee for President of the United States starts with 226 electors, and the likely Republican nominee starts with 235 electors. Seventy-seven electors from six states are identified as Toss-ups. Under this scenario, New Hampshire and its four electors are identified as “Leaning Democratic.”
Assuming the Democratic nominee will be incumbent President Joe Biden and the Republican nominee will be former President Donald Trump, it might be tempting to view the 2024 race in New Hampshire as a replay of the 2020 campaign in which Biden received 52.7% of the vote to Trump’s 45.4%. However, recent events suggest the election will be considerably more complex than that.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has announced that he has submitted the requisite number of petition signatures to qualify to appear on the New Hampshire ballot. A New York Times and Siena College poll of six battleground states (that did not include New Hampshire) released in November show that Kennedy could receive almost a quarter of the vote. To put that into context, the last Republican to win New Hampshire was George W. Bush, and his victory is largely attributed to Green Party candidate Ralph Nader earning 3.7% and siphoning off 22,000 votes from Al Gore.
The Biden-Harris campaign recognizes the danger, and after refusing to participate in the New Hampshire primary, it is now standing up a General Election campaign with premier talent. Last week, the Biden-Harris campaign announced seasoned Democratic consultant Liz Purdy will serve as senior adviser and Aaron Jacobs will serve as state campaign manager. Jacobs managed Senator Maggie Hassan’s successful 2022 reelection campaign.
The Write-in Biden campaign that was conducted by prominent state Democrats during the New Hampshire primary was a success – but only against marginal (at best) competition. Biden’s dissing of the Granite State caused lasting ill will and 57% of Granite Staters disapprove of his performance in the White House. These two factors could combine to suppress Democratic turnout in November.
Given these factors, the Biden-Harris campaign will likely be forced to compete aggressively for New Hampshire’s four electors.
Former President Donald Trump had a successful primary night, but he will have to work exceptionally hard to unite the Republican Party if he is to be victorious in November. The exit polls in New Hampshire painted a picture of two widely divergent wings of the party. Trump’s base is big and immovable. But 43.26% of people who pulled a Republican ballot voted for former Ambassador Nikki Haley, and they hold opinions on hot button issues that differ from Trump, issues like the war in Ukraine and immigration policy.
With a rapidly shrinking electoral map, the Granite State’s four electors could decide the outcome of the 2024 Presidential campaign. Both Biden and Trump will have to work diligently to notch a win in New Hampshire. And Kennedy waits in the wings as a spoiler.
Patrick Hynes is the President of Novus Public Affairs. He can be found on X @patjhynes.
CAMPAIGN finance reporting requirements are meant to educate the public about who is funding the campaigns and where the money is going. They are a public interest measure to hold the candidates accountable. You wouldn’t know that if you were trying to answer a simple question: Who pays Joyc…
