A general manager can do almost everything right and still lose the Super Bowl if his team doesn’t have the better quarterback. That point felt obvious on Sunday as Patrick Mahomes lifted the Kansas City Chiefs to a Super Bowl LVIII victory over the San Francisco 49ers.
On paper, the 49ers had the better roster. This season, San Francisco led all NFL teams with nine players selected to the Pro Bowl and six players selected to the AP All-Pro team. This year, there were only three unanimous selections to the All-Pro team, and the 49ers had two of them (Christian McCaffrey and Fred Warner).
San Francisco went into the Super Bowl with the NFL’s best running back (McCaffrey), linebacker (Warner), left tackle (Trent Williams), fullback (Kyle Juszczyk) and one of the game’s best tight ends (George Kittle). On top of that, they had an All-Pro receiver (Brandon Aiyuk) to go with the dynamic Deebo Samuel and a Pro Bowl quarterback (Brock Purdy). Their defense also had a Pro Bowl defensive end (Nick Bosa), defensive tackle (Javon Hargrave) and cornerback (Charvarius Ward).
Meanwhile, the Chiefs had one All-Pro player on their defense (Chris Jones) and three on offense with tight Travis Kelce, center Creed Humphry and left guard Joe Thuney, who didn’t play in the Super Bowl.
It didn’t matter that the 49ers had more accolades or a star-studded roster. It mattered that they had Mahomes, the best quarterback in the NFL.
That brings us to the Patriots.
New head coach Jerod Mayo and de facto general manager Eliot Wolf head into this offseason with the third-most cap space and the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. The Patriots have a laundry list of major needs and there’s an argument to be made that they should trade down for a treasure trove of draft assets and fill their many roster holes.
After watching Super Bowl LVIII, I’m here to say that’s the wrong move.
As we just witnessed, you can build the best roster in the NFL and still lose in the playoffs if you don’t have the better quarterback. Purdy played admirably this season, but when it came to crunch time, Mahomes outperformed the young quarterback and he’s the reason why the Chiefs beat a team with the better roster.
That’s why the Patriots need to roll the dice and swing for the fences in April. That’s why they need to draft a quarterback with the No. 3 pick. Whether that’s North Carolina’s Drake Maye or LSU’s Jayden Daniels, the Patriots need to find their next franchise quarterback. After that, they should build the team around his skill set.
We all know that the NFL draft is a crapshoot. There are no sure things. It’s a gamble, but it’s one the Patriots have to take.
Some alternatives could put the Patriots back in the playoff hunt. For example, they could sign Kirk Cousins or Baker Mayfield in free agency. After that, they could draft a tackle or a wide receiver. That could easily take them from a 4-13 team to an eight-win or 10-win team. Then you’re talking about the playoffs. Maybe a wild card berth or a team that gets into the divisional round.
Let’s be honest, though: If the Patriots want to get to the point where they’re challenging the Chiefs or making a deep playoff run, they need a top-tier quarterback. That’s not Cousins or Mayfield. They are in a division with Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers and Tua Tagovailoa. They’re in a conference with C.J. Stroud, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Justin Herbert and Mahomes.
They say you shouldn’t bring a knife to a gunfight. In this case, you shouldn’t bring a mediocre quarterback to the AFC trying to make a deep playoff run.
There’s a chance the Patriots draft a quarterback and that player isn’t as accomplished as the top receiver (Marvin Harrison Jr.) or tackle (Joe Alt) available. That’s a risk that Wolf and Mayo should take.
Next year’s draft class is not expected to have the same kind of depth or star power at quarterback. The Patriots might also not be back in a position to draft a quarterback with as high of an upside as Maye or Daniels.
When it comes to finding a franchise quarterback, the best place to look is in the first round of the NFL draft. For example, take the NFL’s top 10 passing leaders of all time. Seven of those players were drafted in the first round.
If you were to take the top 20 quarterbacks in NFL history sorted by career wins, you’d find that 13 of them were drafted in the first round.
The Patriots have a better chance of finding their next franchise quarterback by drafting one in the first round. In April, they’ll be sitting there at No. 3 with a chance to take one with a high upside.
It’s a risk, but it’s worth taking. As we just saw in the Super Bowl and over the past two decades with Tom Brady, if you hit on the right quarterback, everything else will likely fall into place.
